The Olympic Buzz Experiment continues. These are results for February 2013, which means everything here is pre-World Championships. It’s interesting to look back and see the movement that was already happening in advance of Worlds, but it will be even more interesting to see what March 2013’s Buzz is like.
Buzz History: Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | Jan 2013
For those who forgot already, February was the month of the Four Continents Championships, the domestic event Cup of Russia, and the small international Challenge Cup in the Hague.
Skating fans, send me your picks for the end of this season! I will be doing two more months of Buzz (March and April) before taking a break for the off-season and some extra analysis of the numbers. To learn more about the Olympic Buzz Experiment and its methodology, scroll to the bottom of this page.
Evidence that fan devotion sometimes trumps results, neither Yuzuru Hanyu nor Daisuke Takahashi took much of a dip after their disappointing Four Continents results. In fact, Takahashi actually gained in February. Patrick Chan continues to lead, but it is European champion Javier Fernandez who made the biggest jump, moving ahead of Evgeni Plushenko into fourth.
- Patrick Chan – 6.028 (-0.505) G,S
- Yuzuru Hanyu – 4.549 (-0.055) B
- Daisuke Takahashi – 3.829 (+0.414)
- Javier Fernandez – 2.389 (+1.171) DR
- Evgeni Plushenko – 1.171 (-0.607)
- Tomas Verner – 0.127 (+0.023)
- Takahiko Kozuka – 0.095 (-0.047)
- Jeremy Abbott – 0.095 (+0.005)
- Max Aaron – 0.079 (+0.040)
- Evan Lysacek – 0.079 (-0.037)
- Brian Joubert – 0.063 (+0.025)
- Maxim Kovtun – 0.047 (+0.022)
- Ross Miner – 0.047 (+0.009)
- Florent Amodio – 0.032 (+0.019)
- Takahito Mura – 0.016 (-0.003)
- Kevin Reynolds – 0.016 (NEW)
- Off the list: Brezina, Machida
Lots of movement in the ladies event, though most is just in Buzz numbers. The top three remain the same, but Carolina Kostner makes the biggest move, into fourth in the Buzz rankings. Yuna Kim continues to lead, but her lead is smaller in February as Mao Asada gained some ground with the return of her triple axel at Four Continents. Ashley Wagner had the month off in competition and took a bit of a drop in her Buzz number as a result.
- Yuna Kim – 6.571 (-0.292) G
- Mao Asada – 5.048 (+1.107) S
- Ashley Wagner – 2.131 (-0.726) B
- Carolina Kostner – 1.506 (+0.409)
- Elizaveta Tuktamisheva – 1.202 (-0.252) DR
- Akiko Suzuki – 0.561 (-0.013)
- Adelina Sotnikova – 0.465 (+0.108)
- Gracie Gold – 0.304 (+0.024) DR
- Julia Lipnitskaia – 0.272 (-0.391)
- Mirai Nagasu – 0.176 (-0.015)
- Kiira Korpi – 0.144 (-0.022)
- Kaetlyn Osmond – 0.080 (+0.055)
- Alena Leonova – 0.064 (+0.013)
- Alissa Czisny – 0.016 (+0.003)
- Zijun Li – 0.016 (RE-ENTRY)
- Valentina Marchei – 0.016 (+0.003)
Now the World champs, Tatiana Volosozhar/Maxim Trankov were making plenty of noise heading into the World Championships, as they continued to widen their gap on the rest of the pairs. Both Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy and Qing Pang/Jian Tong continued to lose ground, while Vera Bazarova/Yuri Larionov and Meagan Duhamel/Eric Radford were trending upward.
- Volosozhar/Trankov – 8.402 (+0.429) G
- Savchenko/Szolkowy – 5.984 (-0.520) S
- Pang/Tong – 1.571 (-0.239) B
- Bazarova/Larionov – 1.086 (+0.208)
- Duhamel/Radford – 0.840 (+0.283) DR
- Kavaguti/Smirnov – 0.410 (-0.114)
- Sui/Han – 0.205 (-0.015)
- Moore-Towers/Moscovitch – 0.102 (+0.018)
- Denney/Coughlin – 0.082 (-0.019)
- Davis/Brubaker – 0.020 (NEW)
- Off the list: Castelli/Shnapir, Peng/Zhang, Takahashi/Tran
We have a switch at the top while most of the other teams have remained in the same spots. Meryl Davis/Charlie White, on the heels of their Four Continents victory over Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir, are on top for the first time in their Buzz number. Ekaterina Bobrova/Dmitri Soloviev also gained some ground, possibly a precursor to their bronze medal at Worlds.
Madison Chock/Evan Bates make their first appearance on the list, showing that their bronze at Four Continents gave them a bit of momentum.
- Davis/White – 7.857 (+0.402) G
- Virtue/Moir – 7.143 (-0.454) S
- Pechalat/Bourzat – 1.885 (-0.047) B
- Bobrova/Soloviev – 0.754 (+0.105) DR
- Ilinykh/Katsalapov – 0.417 (-0.054)
- Weaver/Poje – 0.159 (-0.003)
- Cappellini/Lanotte – 0.139 (+0.009)
- Shibutani/Shibutani – 0.119 (+0.022)
- Gilles/Poirier – 0.040 (-0.008)
- Chock/Bates – 0.020 (NEW)
- Off the list: Stepanova/Bukin
What is the Buzz Experiment?
Examiner Figure Skating’s Olympic Buzz Experiment polls skating fans and experts alike about their podium predictions for the Olympics at the end of each month. Beginning November 2012, results are being compiled every in-season month (November 2012-April 2013, August 2013-January 2014) to understand skater momentum as the Sochi Olympics approach.
By gathering predictions via email rather than from an online poll, the Buzz Experiment attempts to reduce skewed results often seen with online polls. The goal is not a popularity contest, though that aspect does play a role in the results, but rather a more genuine sense of who is generating the most buzz and momentum as the Olympics near.
Methodology of results
The biggest caveat that I have with the Buzz Experiment is that the analysis of results will likely change as I understand the data, have more questions, and get feedback. Currently, the Buzz Number is a weighted average of the responses as follows: Gold (53.33%), Silver (26.67%), Bronze (13.33%), Dark Horse (6.67%).
Results are accepted ONLY when participants provide predictions for one or more full podiums (i.e., if a person chooses just one person for the gold, the prediction is discarded). This allows a fairer distribution of predictions.
How do I participate?
For more background, take a look at my original post. Email me your March 2013 picks at firstname.lastname@example.org! I want a gold, a silver, a bronze, and a dark horse for men, ladies, pairs, and dance. Note that you don’t have to choose podiums for all disciplines if you are not familiar. Plus, tell me what country you are from.